India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University. "The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer," he says in the paper.
With decline in number of fresh COVID-19 cases and easing of restrictions, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 8.5 per cent in FY2021-22, according to credit rating agency Icra Ratings. It expects the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) to grow at 7.3 per cent in FY2022. "The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and the ensuing state-wise restrictions was seen across a variety of high frequency indicators in April-May 2021.
If the government cuts wasteful expenditure as it is trying now, the deficit would at most fall to 8 per cent, not less than that.
The estimated size of the Durga Puja economy could be about Rs 2.75 trillion in 2021 had there been no pandemic, points out Atanu Biswas.
A majority of the companies said the law, aimed at jobs with a monthly salary cap of Rs 50,000, will result in them leaving Haryana or growing their operations in other states and abroad.
China became the biggest producer of mobile phones, colour televisions and monitors in the world last year and its high-tech exports reached a record $110 billion, according to official statistics.
A Collection of Services Trade Statistics Act is being thought of.
The manufacturing and construction sector accounted for 42.7 per cent of GDP while the farm sector accounted for 9.2 per cent.
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
'Success will require political skill, not just economic expertise'
It was higher than 3.2 per cent rate registered in February, the lowest pace recorded in 20 months, state run Xinhua reported.
Andhra Pradesh posted 8.14% consumer inflation in October.
It's high time we now turn the popular question on its head -- when there is no growth in jobs for several years, how can the real GDP grow at 7 per cent per annum, says Mahesh Vyas.
The sudden stop in economic activity led to a sharp decline in employment-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport etc.
Concerned by GDP slowdown and unrealistic tax targets, the economists urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to implement long-term structural steps like land and labour reforms. Warning against any off-Budget financing the economists said the government should prepare a statement of intent for its social, rural and welfare sector expenditure.
Americans are lucky they have inherited the innovations of the past.
Domestic ratings agency Icra on Monday forecast a 2 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, and a 7.3 per cent contraction for the full fiscal year. From a GVA or gross value added perspective, the agency pegs Q4 growth at 3 per cent and the full year contraction at 6.3 per cent. According to the agency, the 2 per cent projected GDP growth will help the economy avoid a double-dip recession as indicated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) for Q4. Icra's projection is better than the 8 per cent contraction forecast by the NSO as it sees Q4 growth at only 1.1 per cent.
Declining vegetable prices brought down the retail inflation to a 15-month low of 4.59 per cent in December and within the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank, government data showed on Tuesday. It is for the first time during the current fiscal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation print is below 6 per cent or in the RBI's target range of 2 to 6 per cent. The central bank factors in the CPI-based inflation while arriving at its monetary policy. The inflation in December 2020 came down from 6.93 per cent in November, mainly on account of 10.41 per cent decline in vegetable prices over the year-ago period.
Bharatiya Janata Party leader Arun Jaitley on Wednesday demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for 'failing to take action' against former telecom minister A Raja for over three years in connection with the spectrum scam. Speaking at the massive rally organised by the NDA, Jaitley ridiculed Dr Singh's offer to appear before the PAC. "The PAC has a limited role. It can only go into the statistics and report of the CAG," he said.
In the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations.
According to official statistics, half of India's GDP comes from as many as 420 million workers in the unorganised sector including street vendors, rickshaw pullers, construction workers, rag pickers, agricultural workers, among others. This massive workforce remains outside the purview of the formal banking and insurance industries.
Expect a more modest out-turn of around 5 per cent (if not less) because of the longer-term scarring effects of the Covid shock, the sharply slowing growth in the pre-Covid years and some scepticism about the growth-efficacy of some of recent official policy initiatives, explains Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the government.
Jai Bhim is a story of hope and despair, observes Utkarsh Mishra.
Delhi has earned the dubious distinction of being the most unsafe metro in the country, topping the list in number of crimes as well as in atrocities on women and children.
The government is planning to extend the electronic modes of tax payment to its own payments platform, Unified Payments Interface (UPI), credit cards of banks, or even a mobile wallet like Paytm.
'Given that the economy is going through a slowdown, further downward revisions of the 2019-2020 growth estimates cannot be ruled out,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
Experts believe that under-reporting is likely to cause an underestimation of the spread of the disease.
Why is China's supreme leader promoting Han Chauvinism so aggressively, asks Claude Arpi.
The hoarding of cash accentuated from the very start of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic started taking hold the world over, and fear of the pandemic prodded people to remain liquid for emergency use.
The total value of assets held by India's financial institutions touched nearly $2.8 trillion, the third largest among BRICS nations, in 2013.
Lenders say settlements will cross over 100 accounts in the March quarter.
Macroeconomic management is usually a lot more comfortable with lower fiscal deficits. The sooner we get there, the better for the economy, says former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India Shankar Acharya.
India grew at 7.6% in 2015-16 and at 7.2% in 2014-15.
'In the absence of a vaccine, as long as there are pockets of active cases in India, it would be good to have a limited lockdown.'
India's industrial production grew by 1 per cent in December, official data showed on Friday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in December 2020.
The new numbers clearly had very different implications.
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
Prospects of China hiking interest rates increased as inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in May, surpassing the government target of 3 per cent.
